Forecast is a community for crowdsourced predictions and collective insights. Since launching in June, we’ve heard from our small, but dedicated community that they want simpler ways to forecast, and to discuss what’s happening now: from the future of business, to sports, to the US 2020 election. So today, we’re opening Forecast to everyone in the US and Canada, and making the most engaged-with questions — about news and current events — easier to find, forecast, and share.
Forecast is built around a prediction market: an exchange where people use virtual points to trade on outcomes of future events. Since June, the Forecast community has made more than 37,000 forecasts on hundreds of questions asked by other users. Beyond the predictions themselves, we think what makes Forecast interesting is the discussion people have.
In the process of reasoning about their predictions, people share insights about what’s going on today and debate what it means for tomorrow. Like any set of predictions, Forecast cannot offer definitive answers about the future. However, as we’ve learned in our initial testing, when people take time to explain how they arrived at their forecasts, it appears to encourage measured, respectful conversation.
Highlighting News and Current Events
Questions in Forecast are generated by the community. As a result, discussions tend to focus on what’s happening in the world today: whether that’s the results of a sporting event, or most recently, the 2020 US election. We’ve updated the Forecast website to make it easier to navigate the most-discussed forecasts. Visitors can browse the popular topics, and view a rollup of user-generated predictions and discussion about national and state-level election results. All of this content must abide by our moderation guidelines.
Making Sharing Easy
In addition to viewing crowdsourced predictions from the community, visitors can now make and share their own forecasts. Forecasts are trackable over time and shareable across platforms.
People in the US and Canada can visit the Forecast website to start making their forecasts. They can also update their forecasts and contribute to the conversation by downloading the iOS app, and following us on Twitter.